Hello Again

I had to stop blogging last June.

Too many clients, which ate my time. And I could not risk having them damaged by something I posted that might be taken out of context.

So, about the election, the argument about late polls, and the outcome.

Lots of smart people got it wrong. RoveMorrisNoonanBarone. And Romney’s polltaker.

Lesson One:

If you are a pundit or in the prediction business, be prepared to eat your words. At some point, you will make a mistake. Or be dead wrong. If you go way out on a limb… it may be a hard fall.

Lesson Two:

Let the dust settle before you (as in you) buy conclusions from anyone. The chatter bugs on FOX, MSNBC, etc love to prove how smart they are, and they now trying to prove how smart they are by uttering definitive declarations about why America did what it did. Some of those same people told us Romney would win in a landslide.

My own take, based on some cold hard facts:

The House. The Republicans lost seats, but the Republicans still have a solid majority.  Even if the GOP loses all races still too close to call, it will have 234 seats in the next Congress, four more than the GOP held after the blowout year of 1994. The same electorate that reelected Obama gave this nation a Republican Congress. It was not a “wave” election. The one that voted for Obama also voted for a brake on Obama’s agenda, whatever that is.

The Senate. The GOP should control the Senate. It doesn’t because some weak candidates lost elections they should have won in 2010 and 2012. The GOP should have Senators from Delaware, Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado. Takeaway five democrats and add five Republicans and add another that we should have picked up in Ohio, or North Dakota, or Montana and you’d have a Republican Senate. Some were wing nuts. Some said dumb things. Wing nuts who say dumb things have given us another two years of Harry Reid, perhaps the most despicable Majority Leader of my lifetime. Suggestion for the Republican Senate Campaign Committee. Acknowledge that no amount of super PAC money can save a candidate prone to idiotic pronunciations about witches or God’s will when a woman is raped. Invest a little in candidate training.

The Presidency. I thought Romney had momentum in the last week, and I felt it stall three hours before Hurricane Sandy hit the shores of New Jersey. That’s when I saw the President acting like a President, excising Romney from the front page and off the evening newscasts.

Despite same, how did Romney manage to lose every key swing state to a hapless President who made Carter look competent?

Some takeaways that deserve more analysis.

Demography. Demography is destiny, and the GOP demographic is dying. We had better be looking for ways to expand our reach to women, Hispanics, Asians, and middle class African Americans.  We can do that without promising free birth control to pre-pubescent girls taking their first communion or free abortions to multi-millionaires and billionaires.

Ground Game. We suck on the ground game mechanics. Obama’s team was very good at it. We’d better get better at it and soon.

Debates. In a year like this, they are important. One win out of three is not good enough.

An Agenda. Obama made a risky bet, and it worked. He calculated that he could win by demonizing Romney when Romney had no money to respond. Obama offered no rationale for a second term, other than he’d be better than the demon he defined. Likewise, I woke election day having no idea how Mitt was going to do what he said he was going to do. I wish he’d spelled it out in an easily understood and memorable way, the way Reagan did in 1980. I

Political consultant Jay Townsend works with smart, passionate candidates who want to run for office, win elections and make a difference. He has successfully helped candidates learn how to run for the U.S. Senate, how to run for Congress, how to run for Mayor and develop a winning campaign marketing strategy.

How to win an election:

Running for office and knowing how to win an election is a challenge, especially for first time political candidates just learning how to run for office. Discerning the fine points of how to campaign, raise political contributions, and execute a political campaign strategy often requires the help of someone who has served as a political strategist or who has experience as a political consultant.

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